Why IPL Teams Bowl First: Dew, Data and the Chase
IPL captains bowl first because chasing wins. Across every match from 2008 to 2026 the side batting second won 54.2 per cent, and in the 2026 season that rose to 62.7 per cent, with toss winners choosing to field in 57 of the 70 league games. The reasons are dew, the information advantage of a known target, and the way T20 batting has changed, and they are strong enough that the thirteen captains who batted first after winning the toss in 2026 won three times. This guide covers the data, the reasons, when batting first still makes sense, and what changed in 2026.
The Numbers
| Measure | 2008 to 2026, all matches | 2026 league stage |
|---|---|---|
| Chasing side wins | 54.2% | 62.7% of decided matches |
| Toss winner chooses to field | 65.5% | 81.4% (57 of 70) |
| Toss winner fields and wins | 54.4% | 59.7% |
| Toss winner bats and wins | 46.2% | 25% (3 of 13) |
| Toss winner wins, any choice | about 51.6% | Home sides 21 of 39 tosses converted |
The long-run figures come from Cricsheet ball-by-ball data for 1,146 matches; the 2026 figures from a league-stage analysis published after the final group game. Only 2016, at 65 per cent, has had a higher chase rate than 2026, and 2014 and 2021 match it.
Why Chasing Wins
- Dew. Most IPL matches are played in the evening, and from roughly the eleventh over of the second innings the ball and outfield are wet. Bowlers struggle to grip the seam, spinners lose their revolutions, and the ball skids onto the bat. The side bowling second is bowling with the handicap.
- A known target. The chasing side can pace an innings to a number. The side batting first is guessing what par is, and on a flat pitch with dew coming it usually guesses low.
- Modern T20 batting. Deep batting orders and the Impact Player rule, which lets a team bring in a specialist batter for the chase, have raised what a side is willing to chase. Totals that were safe a decade ago are not now.
- Home ground knowledge. Home sides know how much dew to expect and when; the 2026 numbers show them converting slightly more than half their tosses, which is an edge but not a large one.
When Batting First Still Makes Sense
Afternoon matches, where there is no dew, remove the strongest reason to chase and the conventional view of batting first on a good pitch returns. Dry, slow pitches that grip more as the match goes on, common in Chennai and Lucknow, favour defending. A side with elite death bowling can prefer to defend a total it can protect. And in knockouts some captains prefer the control of setting a target. Those cases exist, but the 2026 record of three wins in thirteen for captains who batted first by choice is a warning about how often they are judged correctly.
The 2025 Rule Changes
The BCCI tried to blunt the dew advantage in 2025 with two playing-condition changes widely reported at the time: the ball could be changed at the umpires' discretion from the eleventh over of the second innings in evening matches, and the saliva ban was lifted for the IPL to help bowlers maintain the ball. The 2026 chase rate suggests neither did much. The Impact Player rule, which many captains argue has tilted matches further towards the chase, is under review for 2027; as of mid-October 2026 the BCCI has consulted the franchises and not announced a decision.
What It Means for Watching and Playing
For a viewer, the toss in an evening IPL match now tells you which side the data favours before a ball is bowled, and a first-innings total of 180 is a par score rather than a winning one. For a club captain in an evening T20 league, the lesson transfers: if the ground gets dewy, chase, and if you must bat first, add twenty to what you think is enough. Our guide to whether the toss matters in cricket covers the other formats, and the Impact Player rule has its own page.
FAQs: Bowling First in the IPL
Why do IPL teams bowl first? Because chasing wins more often: 54 per cent of all matches since 2008 and 63 per cent in 2026. Dew in the second innings and the advantage of a known target are the reasons.
What percentage of IPL matches are won by the chasing team? 54.2 per cent across 2008 to 2026, and 62.7 per cent of decided matches in the 2026 season.
Does winning the toss matter in the IPL? Only because it lets a captain choose to chase. Toss winners have won about 51.6 per cent of matches overall.
When should an IPL captain bat first? In afternoon matches without dew, on slow dry pitches that grip later, or with a bowling attack built to defend. In 2026 that choice paid off three times in thirteen.
What is the dew factor? Moisture that settles on the ball and outfield during evening matches, making the ball hard to grip and the pitch easier to bat on in the second innings.
Sources
The long-run figures are from CricketStudio's Cricsheet analysis, 23 June 2026. The 2026 league-stage figures are from The Curiosity Quotient, 27 May 2026. The Impact Player review is reported by Outlook, October 2026.
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